Getting Out on the Dance Floor – 
Embracing Uncertainty & Scenario Planning

On Carpe Diem West Academy’s November 8, 2011 webinar, we addressed some of the challenges in using projections of climate change downscaled from global climate models. Downscaled projections have a place in preparing for climate change but, especially at longer timescales, the uncertainties related to future emissions trajectories will not be reduced, even with better science. Further, other forces that affect water resources can be as important (such as regulations, regional development, costs) and as uncertain. How can we handle such large levels of uncertainty?

Join our guests Armin Munevar, P.E., Global Technology Leader at CH2M Hill, and Wally Wilson, Lead Hydrologist at Tucson Water as we look at scenario planning. Scenario planning is framework for thinking about climate and impacts information in a different way — not trying to reduce or precisely quantify uncertainty, but rather how to ensure that decisions can succeed in spite of great uncertainty. Scenario planning methods are ideal for helping to rapidly scope problems, identify the importance and consequences of key uncertainties, assess and prioritize feasible decision options, and identify key decision points. Scenario planning also provides flexibility to concurrently consider non-climatic concerns.

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